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The former BBC tennis commentator John Barrett used to utter a simple phrase when a player blasted a shot past their flailing opponent to win a point: “That’s just too good.” The defeated player would have played the point perfectly up to that point, only to see their skilled opponent then smash the ball past them. It is a phrase ingrained in my mind after watching Tim Henman fall to a string of heartbreaking defeats at Wimbledon in the 1990s and early 2000s. 

Barrett retired from commentating in 2006 but the relevance of that phrase lives on. Indeed, it has a relevance far beyond what he intended. In business, as in sport, we lay out carefully crafted strategies, recruitment plans and budgets only to see events get in the way. A brilliant innovation or breakthrough can change the game. As the boxer Mike Tyson bluntly put it: “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”  

When Jeff Bezos posted the first job advert for Amazon in 1994, he signed it off with a simple line: “It’s easier to invent the future than predict it.” That is a quote from Alan Kay, a computer scientist who is considered a key figure in the development of personal computers. 

As humans, we are wired to try to put narratives and explanations around why and how things happen. But the principle of Occam’s razor is that when there could be multiple explanations for something happening, the simplest is the most likely. As the investment analyst Joachim Klement wrote this week: “Things happen by chance and there is no explanation for it other than ‘stuff happens’.” 

This all helps to explain why forward-thinking businesses always leave room for brilliant staff to try to do unexpected things. Google, for example, encourages staff to spend 20 per cent of their working hours on projects of their choice. This helped to create some of the company’s most successful products, including Gmail. 

But it is also a reason to stay aware for unexpected events that could change the course of your business. The development of artificial intelligence is, of course, one of these. Geopolitical events are another. The Economist is this week suggesting there is another that we are underestimating: weight-loss drugs like Wegovy.

In its editorial leader it says that this class of drug – known as GLP-1s – are showing the potential to tackle not just obesity, but addiction, Alzheimer’s and even ageing. “Few drugs, if any, have promised to have such a revolutionary impact on human health, longevity and happiness,” The Economist writes.

Novo Nordisk, the drug business behind Wegovy, is now the biggest listed company in Europe. The Danish business was established in the 1920s after commercialising insulin for treatment of diabetes. Wegovy only emerged from the company when it was testing whether its diabetes treatments could have a wider use to help control weight. This was an unexpected twist. In 2023, the company posted sales of £27bn and net profits of £10bn, the largest in its history.  

An estimated one in eight America adults are already using weight-loss drugs like Wegovy, a trend that could transform the food and drink industries, as well as any business connected to health. But this could only be the start, with other companies now testing GLP-1 drugs for many other uses. 

To paraphrase Alan Kay, Novo Nordisk may have invented the future. 

What you need to know this week

1. Consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level this year, dropping to –21, according to GfK’s consumer confidence index. It provides an indication of how likely households are to spend and suggests consumers are “holding their breath” as they await the Budget next week. Separate data from S&P Global shows business confidence is also falling, with its PMI composite output falling to an 11-month low of 51.7. Read more here.

2. Boohoo has responded to a demand from Frasers Group that it replace its CEO with Mike Ashley, saying it has raised governance concerns that are yet to be addressed. Frasers Group, which owns 27 per cent of Boohoo, wrote in an open letter that it believes the company needs to “urgently address the management of the business”. But Boohoo is concerned about Ashley taking over because Frasers Group also owns a 23.6 per cent stake in its rival Asos. Read more here.

3. Disney plans to announce a replacement for its CEO Bob Iger in early 2026 as it looks to provide a clear succession plan. Iger was CEO for 15 years before stepping down in 2020 but his successor, Bob Chapek, was dismissed just two years later and Iger brought back. The company has also named Morgan Stanley executive chair James Gorman as its new board chair, a role he will take up in January. Read more here.

4. Tesla’s shares saw their biggest single-day gain in over a decade, closing nearly 22 per cent up on Thursday as its CEO Elon Musk forecast sales growth of up to 30 per cent in the next year. Its quarterly results show adjusted net income rose by 8 per cent to $2.5bn (£1.9bn), exceeding analyst expectations of $2.1bn, while revenue increased by 8 per cent to $25.2bn. Read more here.

5. The new boss of Boeing has promised to “fundamentally” transform the culture at the company as its quarterly losses increased to $6bn and it faced ongoing strike action by staff. CEO Kelly Ortberg has outlined its three key challenges: an erosion in trust in the company, too much doubt and “series lapses” in performance that have disappointed customers. Around 33,000 Boeing staff went on strike last month, halting production of its jets. They have now rejected a proposed deal that included a 35 per cent wage increase. You can read more on the culture here and the rejected deal here.

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Weekend reading

⭐ Stop ignoring your high performers 

The perceived wisdom among many managers is that high performers can be left to their own devices while underperformers need more support and attention. This piece from Harvard Business Review argues that high performers need just as much support and attention as underperformers, but a different type. If this isn’t given, they can become disengaged and frustrated – and ultimately leave. It also offers tips on how to do this, including giving opportunities for growth, a feeling of belonging and increased recognition. 

🎨 The art of 21st-century leadership 

Leading a global business has never been more difficult. McKinsey estimates that 10 years ago, CEOs and their top teams had to deal with four or five critical issues at any time; now it is double that. To reflect this increased complexity, leaders need different personal attributes and skills. But more businesses also need to focus on leadership factories, offering on-the-job training to improve this key skill. 

💨 “Move fast and break things”? Slow down and go long 

Perceived wisdom in the business world has, for some time, said that “move fast and break things” is the best way to disrupt the status quo and build a company. But this article from Big Think suggests this has resulted in too much short-term thinking. The next era of business, it argues, will not be defined by how quickly companies can grow but how well they endure.  

And finally

The James Webb telescope was launched a little under three years ago at a cost of $10bn. Since then, it has been taking photographs that scientists have poured over for clues as to the origin of the universe and improved understanding of space. 

Unlike previous telescopes, James Webb operates in infrared, meaning it can view objects that might be too old, distant or faint for previous telescopes, such as Hubble. And it has just sent back some stunning new pictures, including the one above.

Thanks for reading. If you have any questions, requests or comments on this newsletter or any of our content, you can get in touch with us at editorial@businessleader.co.uk.